State of the Welterweights

As much as UFC loves to use The Ultimate Fighter to attract new fans, you have to wonder if the decision to use the current and former welterweight champions Matt Serra and Matt Hughes as coaches for season 6 is being second-guessed. While the show is a nice way to build rivals and hype matchups, the momentum of the welterweight division has cooled off while the world waits for the Serra-Hughes title fight set to take place at the conclusion of the season.

The reason the division has built so much momentum is that the matches made by the organization have more or less gone to plan.  For the UFC going to plan means that the TUF-alums and other rising stars have continued to win. As a result  the division currently has a handful of fighters who stand within a victory or two of a legitimate claim to a title shot. Where there is competition there are potential dream matches, elimination matches and grudge matches. Let’s take a look at the contenders and examine the potential matchups:

1. Matt Serra- The current champ is actually the least-accomplished fighter among this group. Obviously any title fight has drama, and the UFC is looking to spice this next one up with a coaching rivalry. If Serra were to lose to Hughes he will remain in the mix, but will find himself in a must-win situation. In that regard he is no different than the rest of the group.

2. Matt Hughes- Hughes is a year removed from being considered one of the best pound-for-pound fighters on the planet. He desperately wanted to avoid St. Pierre in his quest to reclaim his belt, and thinks he hit the jackpot when Serra scored that surprising knockout. If he can win this fall there will be no shortage of challengers with great stories of why each should be next. Everything seems to have fallen into place for Hughes- not only is Serra not known for his striking, but he is considered a “lucky” champion. A loss would convince many what a lot of people already believe- that the sport has passed Hughes by.

3. Georges St. Pierre- Before running into a Serra haymaker St. Pierre sat atop what seemed like a clear pecking order at 170 pounds. On one hand he could easily be two wins away from reclaiming that post. On the other hand another loss makes him what no one in this division can afford to be- loser of two in a row. Ex-champ or not, that distinction would bury him. The good news is that St. Pierre is considered the best striker in the division, and if he reclaims his title he will do so by defeating two fighters known for their wrestling. If he can run the table much order will be resotred to the division by this time next year.

4. Josh Koscheck- Koscheck’s minor upset over Diego Sanchez this spring helped add to the chaos of the division. Koscheck was supposed to be a prospect who would hit his first major snag in Sanchez and work his way back over the next year. Sanchez was supposed to earn an immediate title shot following impressive victories by both he and Georges St. Pierre. Instead both Koscheck and Serra scored upsets and a new set of doors was opened. Koscheck is a wrestler who is learning to be an ultimate fighter. The wildcard in every matchup he steps into is how much he has evolved since his last fight. In August he will be an underdog again but he’s also a win away from a titleshot against a fellow wrestler.

5. Diego Sanchez- Sanchez was all set to become the unanimous #1 contender when he lost a decision to Josh Koscheck a couple months ago. But then word came out that he was fighting a career-threatening illness leading up to the bout. An impressive win in his next fight will put him right back in the thick of things, and will spark demands for a Koscheck rubber match. Diego has more to gain and lose than anyone in the coming months.

6. Karo Parysian- Karo has pretty clearly distanced himself from the second tier of welterweights. At the same time he badly needs a win over a top opponent to back up his claim that he deserves a title shot. Although he has lost to Sanchez and St. Pierre, he has three things working for him- he was once scheduled to meet former champion and current challenger Matt Hughes for the belt, he has beaten Matt Serra, and his fights are always exciting. His next opponent is undetermined, but he probably needs a win to land a #1 contender match against another streaking contender.

7 Jon Fitch- Fitch has cleared out the second tier like Parysian, but is otherwise more of an unknown. He doesn’t hold a victory over an elite challenger but hasn’t been beater either- by anyone in fact. In a packed division many are calling for a Fitch-Parysian bout to determine who really belongs in a crowd with barely enough room for either.

8 BJ Penn- Penn is the biggest wildcard for a number of reasons. For one he may elect to stay at 155 where he would be a favorite to claim the belt. While many of his fans would like to see him cross that bridge before looking to unify the belts, Penn himself seems set on settling some old scores at 170. Penn choked out Matt Hughes at a time when he was considered invincible, and has since dominated parts of a fight against St. Pierre and a rematch against Hughes before gassing and losing. Obviously he wants both revenge and the belt. It will be interesting to see how much the organization makes him work for his shot, and if he is up to it.

The Matchups

1. St. Pierre vs. Koscheck, August 25. The winner gets a title shot in the spring of ‘08, and is unlikely to fight again before then.

2. Sanchez vs. Hayato Sakurai, August 25. Sakurai is coming over from Pride and will pose a serious threat to win. If Sanchez wins he could possibly face the loser of Kos-GSP. Another possibility is the winner of a *possible* Fitch-Parysian fight. Regardless, a win puts him right back in the title picture and he will almost certainly face another member of this group by early 2008.

3. Hughes-Serra, November. The winner faces Kos/GSP in the spring. Who the loser is will determine what’s next. If Hughes loses and it appears his days as a headliner are numbered, he still has a couple big fights left, specifically Penn, but finally facing Parysian is also possible.

?? Serra Undercard, November. This could be a good time for Fitch-Parysian if that fight is in the works. BJ Penn’s return to 170 will have to happen at some point as well- the question is the level of his opponent. Does he face a can, a Fitch or Parysian, or would he wait to get thrown right in with Hughes or St. Pierre. In my opinion there is too much talent and too much time to be accounted for to simply wait and face the winner of a possible Hughes-St. Pierre rematch. But since that would be an ideal showdown for the UFC perhaps Penn will be built up with a win or two in preperation for that battle, or at least given the opportunity to earn the slot. If that’s the case then someone else from the division will also have momentum around the same time….

?? Between November and Spring. At the time of the November card either Koscheck or St. Pierre will be coming off a loss, and it is possible that Sanchez will be coming off a win. If Fitch and Karo fight that evening then one of them will be fresh off a win as well, while either Serra or Hughes will have just lost. If Hughes wins it is likely that Penn would fight for the right to face the winner of the spring title fight, and perhaps that would be against a victorious Parysian. If Fitch were to win Diego Sanchez could be next for him. If Hughes loses he may get thrown in with Penn right afterwards- Hughes-Penn III is a fight they will want to make either way. Regardless the following fighters would be ready to fight at some point during the winter: Diego Sanchez and the Kos/GSP loser.

 So what do you guys think?

1. Who wins Hughes/Serra?

2. Who wins GSP/Kos?

3. Will Karo fight Fitch? Who ya got?

4. Who/When will BJ fight next?

5. Who/When will Diego fight if he wins in August?

6. Does the Fitch/Karo winner fight for a shot? Against who?

7. What are your rankings as of Summer ‘08?