Response to Haver: State of the Pens
In my mind the following Pens are better than the average replacement you might get through FA or the minors:
Top 2 Line Forwards: Crosby, Malkin, Staal
3rd Line Forwards: Talbot, Armstrong
Defensemen (*offensive):Whitney*, Gonchar*, Orpik, Eaton, Letang*
And the others:
Question Marks: Malone, Christensen, Ouellet
Free Agents: Roberts, Recchi, Ekman
Dog Shit: Melichar, Scuderi, Laraque, Petrovicky, Nasredine, etc.
OTHER ASSUMPTIONS: The Pens have no impact players left in the minors. They are unlikely to sign a top free agent to a multi-year deal, certainly not more than one. A top end free agent scorer may command $5 million plus. One player of that caliber would likely rule out multiple lower-end signings. Either strategy has merit. The Pens are comfortably under the cap, but need to watch the length of any deals they hand out.
THE OPTIONS:
1. Loaded Line: Put Malkin on Crosby’s wing. Get a forward, preferably gritty with touch, who can skate with them and go get the puck. Ekman could do this, Recchi is simply too slow, and Armstrong isn’t skilled enough, all in my opinion. This could also be done with Staal in place of Malkin.
The Upside: Best two players together means highlight reel set-ups and finishes. 3rd component on the top line would out-produce his cost just by skating with them.
The Downside: Easier to put the top defensive unit out there against just one potent line.
2. Crosby with Scrubs, Malkin with Staal: When the Pens were winning Cups, they had the luxury of a top line featuring Lemieux along with two potent wings. But in leaner years he would center a couple of scrubs and make them productive, effectively manufacturing valuable producers from inexpensive entities. Crosby could in theory do the same thing, but he needs forwards who can skate. Ekman was brought here with that in mind after a successful run with Thornton and Cheechoo in San Jose.
The Upside: Malkin and Staal skate together, developing together and making each other better. Adding a proven veteran scorer to this second line could make it our most lethal, like the Kovalev-Straka-Lang line during Lemieux’s second stint.
The Downside: Crosby’s talent will be wasted if we can’t acquire players with the appropriate speed and touch. Also, Malkin isn’t particularly defensive and may contrast with Staal’s strengths.
3. Three Star Centers, Three Scoring Lines: The three young guns each center a line. Some predict that Staal will become an elite two-way center who can match up with, and shut down opponents’ top line, providing an omnipresent scoring threat via counter-attack. Malkin could team with our most talented wingers with the hope of kick-starting his talents.
The Upside: Total matchup nightmare for opposing teams.
The Downside: This really dillutes our talent.
Let’s take a break. Here’s my thinking so far: 1.) I like the idea of Staal centering a line that acts as a defensive stopper but has the ability to counter-punch- the Madden line comes to mind. We could add a two-way winger through free agency to really make this line potent. 2.) I think Crosby can handle two lesser wingers, but I’m not sure if Malkin can be as productive without Crosby or Staal. Do we gamble that he comes on strong next year? If yes do we then go three deep and sign Ryan Smyth or another elite winger? 3.) In the back of my mind I like the Talbot line and I’m still tempted to load up the top two. SO…..Crosby’s fine either way, I want Staal on his own line, I’m OK with our 3rd, what about Malkin?
THE POTENTIAL FREE AGENT WINGERS: Briere, Drury, Smyth, Selanne, Blake, Karyia, Shannahan, Kozlov, Tkachuck, Nagy, Guerin and Bertuzzi are all unrestricted. I’m going to rule out Briere and Drury based on amount and length of the deals they will get, and Blake becasue I hate him. Smyth may be in the former category and is somewhat in the latter as well. Shannahan, Tkachuck, Guerin and Bertuzzi can really bang and are old enough that they may be interested in coming aboard like Roberts did last year. Karyia or Selanne have the speed to play with Crosby and would each score a ton of goals. There are also plenty of others I didn’t mention- the opportunity is there.
MY SCENARIO:
1. Re-sign Gary Roberts. This is a big “if” but there are similar players available if he goes elsewhere.
2. Team Gonchar with Eaton and Whitney with Orpik. They played well together and each pairing combined puck movement with a physical presence.
3. Promote Letang and sign an adequate defensive-minded partner for him. Plenty are out there.
4. Look long and hard at trading Ryan Malone.
Now I want some help. Please vote:
1.) We’re going to put:
A. Each center on his own line
B. Malkin and Staal on the 2nd line together
C. Malkin on the top line with Crosby
D. Staal on the top line with Crosby
2.) We’re going to sign
A. A power forward for the Crosby line
B. A power forward for the 2nd line
C. A speedy forward for the Crosby line
D. A speedy forward for the 2nd line
Then we’ll go from there………
Here is my desire for the Top 3 Lines next year:
Malkin-Crosby-Recchi
Roberts-Staal-Ouellet
Malone-Talbot-Armstrong
Ruutu-Christensen-Petrovicky
Roberts is a soon-to-be 41-year-old free agent, but I think his impact is apparent. Recchi, too, is an older free agent that has a strong desire to stay in The Burgh. Petrovicky is also a free agent that I think the Pens should attempt to resign; if Petrovicky walks, then Chris Thorburn can fill in as a 3rd line winger.
I think you have to play Malkin on a line with Crosby. I always liken this team to the Pens from yesteryear, those teams that played Jagr (Malkin) on the same line as Lemieux (Crosby), with Francis (Staal) centering the 2nd line. I am actually not opposed to allowing Armstrong to go back to the top line, filling a Kevin Stevens-like role of attacking the net, digging out loose pucks, and all-out hustle.
The best forwards that the Pens have at Wilkes-Barre are Stephen Dixon, Tyler Kennedy, Ryan Stone, and Jonathan Filewich. I would be surprised if any of these guys made the big club next season. One other interesting option could be Alexsey Morozov, who is interested in coming back to the NHL after leading the Russian Super League in scoring. Morozov used to own the Devils and played well on a line with Lemieux, so he could be a possibility, provided the Pens would even want him back, on a line with Crosby and Malkin.
Here is my desire for the Top 3 Defensive Pairings next year:
Gonchar-Eaton
Whitney-Orpik
Letang-Melichar/Scuderi
I think that the Gonchar-Eaton pairing is fine, and I am real excited about the Whitney-Orpik pairing. I think Letang is almost a shoo-in to make the team, but we need to find a pairing for him. Melichar and Scuderi are both free agents, but I expect that one of them will be back to play with Letang next season.
The only other real possibility in the system, besides Letang, is Alex Goligoski, but I don’t suspect that the Pens think he is ready yet.
Here is my desire for the Power Play units:
Gonchar-Whitney-Malkin-Crosby-Roberts
Letang-Orpik-Malone-Staal-Ouellet
I think that the Power Play unit should be relatively fine, but I could also see reduced roles for Roberts and Recchi. I, however, think that Roberts is a beast on that PP unit. As for the 2nd unit, I felt that this was a major weakness in the Ottawa series; a strong 2nd unit is important, however, so I think that Staal stays here on the 2nd unit and, with the addition of Letang, heads an improved unit. Staal also needs to man a spot on the PK unit as he was simply amazing shorthanded this season.
I also suspect that the Pens will and should lock up Coach Michel Therrien and Goalie Jocelyn Thiabault to serve as Fleury’s backup again.
I guess what I am trying to say with all of this is that I don’t think that the Pens will nor should make a strong Free Agent splash. I think that they will and should try to take care of their own Free Agents, opting to go the route of Roberts and Recchi as opposed to Ryan Smyth and Jason Blake. Remember: This team finished with the 4th best record in the Eastern Conference last season and scored more Power Play goals then any team in the NHL…my point being that there’s not a whole lot of work that needs to be done. Furthermore, the team faces HUGE contract situations in the next couple of years with Whitney, Fleury, Crosby, Malkin, and Staal; I would much rather see the Pens lock up those 5 guys than worrying about trying to sign Todd Bertuzzi or someone like that. Remember, too, that the Pens struck out on their last big free agent forward signings (John LeClair and Ziggy Palffy).
Raible
April 26, 2007
All of you Pittsburgh cats are far better versed on the Pens than I.
However, I just don’t see value of putting Crosby and Malkin together on the same line. One line, even if it was the most dominant in the game(there’s little doubt it would be), isn’t enough to compete for a cup.
Malkin alone has the potential to quarterback a line from the wing. He can put the puck hard on net from anywhere in the zone. Staal has unreal hands and a knack for being in the right spot in front of the net. A line of Roberts-Staal-Malkin would be most teams 1st line.
Malkin doesn’t need Crosby to reach his 50+ goal potential. Why waste how much better Crosby can make his line mates by pairing him w/someone who doesn’t need his help. This player might not be on the roster, but i would work hard on finding a player who is compatible w/Sid’s skills. Take a guy who is a 30 goal scorer, and Crosby will turn him into a 50 goal scorer. (Ryan Smyth is a FA and he is a flat out WINNER.)
Special teams is where Crosby and Malkin fit best together. There is no reason that just because they aren’t on the same line, that they couldn’t be together on the #1 PP unit.
Also, Gonchar doesn’t seem to be getting enough credit(nationally anyways), for the turnaround of the team. He looked like a FA bust and reverted back to form this year. I would try to add another inexpensive piece to the blue line. The Pens seemed too inconsistent against big, fast teams who succeed in cycling in the offensive zone. Fluery is a huge part of the future and needs to be protected better then he was in the Ottowa series.
Like I said, you are all more in tune w/the Pens. I just wanted to weigh in on my thoughts about Malkin and Crosby playing together on the same line.
Dwade
April 26, 2007
I’m getting kind of sick of typing up a response and having it just disappear into thin air. Anyway, here’s a marginally worse version of what I just wrote about this topic a minute ago…..
Figuring the line puzzle out is proving to be a tricky task. My thought process just keeps spiralling into the ground.
Ideally you want the following elements on your lines:
1. No more than one guy who needs to carry the puck a lot to be successful.
2. At least one guy that can get behind the net, dig, cycle, and feed the puck to someone in front of the crease.
3. At least one guy who can finish off those feeds.
In a perfect world you’d have Crosby and two guys who can each fill both roles 2 and 3. The Pens’ problem, at least in my head, is that:
1. BOTH Crosby and Malkin need the puck. Even if Malkin ends up playing wing, I still see him hogging the puck like Kovalev did. The hogging isn’t a problem unless he’s playing with Crosby. I think Staal could play off the puck just fine.
2. NEITHER Malkin nor Staal is really a grinder. Staal plays tactically sound defense but doesn’t really get behind the cage and cycle.
3. ALL THREE can finish.
The beauty of Crosby is that he can win control of the puck along the back boards, cruise around with it, and then set up teammates from crazy angles due to his unique package of strength, speed, skills, and vision. Although it would help, Crosby is one of the few stars who doesn’t *need* his wingers to go get the puck for him after a dump-in. So in theory, the only reason you wouldn’t want Malkin to play with Sid is due to criterea #1. Not so much that you wouldn’t want this, but you might get more out of Malkin elsewhere.
An option that could be viable is to put Staal on Crosby’s wing, along with another well-rounded forward. Brendan Shannahan comes to mind, or a player like him whose veteran status may compel him to take a deal that works for us in both length and amount. Then you need to consider Malkin’s needs on the second line, especially once you’ve committed Staal and your whole free agent budget to Crosby. Malone and Ouellet will not bring out the best in him.
Based on my parameters, a Staal-Malkin combo could work too, but only work with a rugged grinder with decent enough speed and touch to keep up and finish on the counter-attack. OK I just described Gary Roberts, so maybe that’s a second line that can work. Roberts could go get it, Malking could skate with it, and Staal and Roberts could finish it. Of course not every goal is manufactured so uniformly, and good players can all set up and finish. Still, you want to mix and match skills on lines.
That line sounds good, but now we’re back to a Crosby line with no wingers. This is where Crosby’s complete skill set, versatility, and ability to put a team on his back come in. This is why he, and Mario Lemiuex and Michael Jordan, are worth more than they were ever and will ever be paid:
He can make his line greater than the sum of its parts. As someone already said, the Pens can pay for a 30-goal scorer and get 50 goals. In other words they can pay $3 million for $6 million worth of production. Or if they need to, as they will some years, they can pay $750,000 for $3 million’s stats.
I think that’s what I’m going to run with for now.
Let’s pencil in Staal-Malkin-Roberts as our second line. For the first unit I guess we can live with Armstrong, Malone, or Christensen on one wing. For the other, at least for this year while we have the cap space, I’m going to sign a veteran goal scorer- maybe Selanne or Karyia if they are interested and look up to it. If Roberts doesn’t come back I’m going to make his replacement my first priority and spend the Selanne money there. Crosby will have to make due.
There’s another possibility. Hockey players have been known to offer the contender discount to make one last run with other great players. We actually saw Selanne and Karyia do this a couple years ago in Colorado. If that happens here, and I almost hope it doesn’t because it’s so tastless sometimes, we can really do some damage. Rather then doing anything that gay, I’d rather package Malone and another young player for an upgrade either on O or D. Malone and Orpik for a big time defenseman sounds good.
But we’ll see.
thegreatawakening
April 26, 2007