THE HYBRIDS, THE FREAKS, THE PASS RUSHERS

Impressive research. I’d be interested to see how Gildon, Porter and Haggans would stack up here.

One thing I’ll say before I start rambling- I think the overall talent level this year is a *little* light. The prospects we are discussing this year are all fantastic talents, but would rate behind (not far behind, but clearly behind) comparables from previous years. If they were all available this year I would expect Merriman and Ware to go in the top 5, followed closely by Lawson and Adams, followed closely again by Wimbley, Anderson, and Moss. (If you disagree with this ranking that’s fine because I just threw it together, the point is only that, at least in my mind, I’m not expecting to get Merriman’s production if the Steelers take Moss.) One thing that is worth noting is that Ware was considered to be a substantially better prospect than Merriman at the time of the draft. Now I think most would give Merriman the edge. Steroids? Probably. But regardless he has bridged what was once a well defined gap. Don’t be surprised if Lawson makes a similar leap in 2007. This can and will happen again. Could be Moss or Anderson.

There’s one thing I’ll point out that has always seemed a little out of whack to me. When a guy who played defensive end in college moves to 3-4 outside linebacker in the pros, he often performs the exact same job. Clark Haggans is basically a 4-3 end with Aaron Smith essentially a defensive tackle and Casey Hampton lined up over the center-guard. Even in pure 4-3s the DTs don’t line up symmetrically accross from the O-line, and before the snap will often give the same look as the Steelers 3-4. But the player lined up against the right tackle is called a defensive end not a linebacker.

I think “hybrid” is a catchey term for people who don’t understand the nuances of defensive (like us) to slap on anyone who has some combined history and future at both defensive line and linebacker. The Steelers, and other teams, do not do this, at least this simplistically. I don’t know the exact phrases that they use, but they do not lump together as hybrids all defensive ends who wind up as linebackers. The term hybrid implies that the player can be interchanged between multiple positions, which is usually not the case. Adalius Thomas and Richard Seymour can more appropriately be labeled as hybrids. (Imagine if they ended up on the same team.) Not all DE-turned-OLB’s are created equal- that’s really all most of them are.

Keven Greene and Joey Porter both played defensive end in college. Each were brought to the Steelers specifically to play linebacker, yet each had completely different skill sets and performed different functions. Porter lined up outside the left tackle and on any given play could drop into a zone, man up against the tight end, or speed rush the passer, often matched up againat a running back. Greene only dropped into coverage as part of an elaborate blitz package, and generally lined up against the right tackle and ran through him. Both hybrids? I guess.

I guess the point is that comparing one college-DE-turned-NFL-OLB-prospect to another is not always comparing apples to apples. I’m not implying that this is what you were doing, Tim, just that I think this is a factor in the out-of-whack fan expectation you mentioned. I don’t know enough about the prospects in this draft to predict their future in the NFL, but I’m not put off much by your findings on Moss (which are still very interesting) since my expectations were tempered to begin with I think.

Moss may hit the league and be unable to keep up in coverage and be forced to take over the Haggans role. The reason Adams is such a valued prospect is because the question mark is sonsimple- what do you want him to do? This post definitely has me wondering about Anderson and whether your thoughts on his ability to play 34olb are correct. The big frame is great because it really gives us more options.

Great findings overall, as well as follow up comments. It will be great to reference this post as the draft approaches and the players join the league. I guess the things I’d like to add most are:

1. Even if this formula takes the shine off a player it’s important to remember that:

a. These players are developing and are capable of improving on, or out-producing, their measureables.

b. If small margins seperate these players in several categories, the formula may cast a overly bad light on a player who is just slightly worse in many areas.

2. Different attributes can be utilized in different ways in the hands of a smart team. Kevin Greene would probably finish dead last based on this equation, but I think I’d take his career at #15.

3. One last thing that I didn’t mention before. I think it is relatively easy to play OLB in the 3-4. While some take on more responsibilities you can be useful even if you can’t do so. Therefore I think the low bust rate we’ve seen is a legitimate trend. Which leads to a question- is it really worth spending an early pick in this area? The Steelers, a pretty smart team, have always said no up until this point.

{to clarify where I’d take Moss: In my rankings he is clearly after Thomas, Johnson, Peterson, Adams and Okoye. If you need a QB there’s two more. I’d probably include Landry, Anderson, and Moss shortly afterwards, with the corners, Nelson, Lynch, and possibly others closely behind. I guess that would place him somewhere between 8-10, and if you have no needs at certain positions could slot the pick as high as 5, although a trade back would be by far the better option even if you risk losing him. For the record I think Moss has bigger bust potential than most on this list but the ability to potentially cause chaos is worth the risk IMO.}

Tim’s post is definitely food for thought. I’m hoping my responses lead to more dialouge. They aren’t really intended to be the definitive opinion on the matter………

-4-3 DEs are NOT the same as 3-4 OLBs. SOME 3-4 OLBs perform a very similar function to a 43DE and if traded to a 4-3 team could slide right in at end and not miss a beat. These players are considered “hybrids” by many but do not possess any rare abilities.

-In terms of excelling I agree. Fairly simple to not get egg on your face in the Haggans role, but very difficult to put up numbers and make Pro-Bowls with 3 other backers to vulture production. I’d argue that there are various sub-categories within the hybrid species. The elite at the position are certainly special but the more common of the group are often either flawed “traditional” linebackers or undersized linemen.

-Don’t ever mention Alonzo again.

-There’s nothing better than when an O-line is totally overmatched, like in the Colts-Steelers playoff game, and the pocket just disintegrates every play as the crowd is either ecstatic or disgusted depending on location.

The beauty of the 3-4 is that it allows creative coordinators to put flawed players in positions to disrupt offenses with the talents that they do possess, while protecting them from vulnerable situations. There are fantastic benefits that arise from two common situations:

1. You draft a highly touted LB prospect early because you love certain things about him and hope to coach up his weak points. It doesn’t work and he just can’t be counted on in pass coverage. In the 34 he isn’t simply a wasted pick- you are able to be creative and use him situationally to cash in what he CAN do well. You salvage *some* value from a “bust.” Everyone was wrong but you didn’t get totally burnt.

2. Tweener-type players slip in the draft because they have no clearly defined role and it is widely agreed that they are unlikely to ever evolve into a great player at either spot. You pounce in the later rounds and essentially get more value (since to YOU the guy does have value) than the pick *should* be worth if everyone did the same things on defense.

The problem is that while this defensive scheme will always be more flexible than the 4-3 base, an equally large value opportunity comes from being one of the few teams to utilize it. As teams catch on and slowly make the switch, your value spots become fewer and farer between. It is kind of like the Moneyball concept. It was never about OBP, it was about finding useful pieces that no one wants and putting them in roles that allow them to be effective, in the process getting more production than you’d otherwise get for the same price. The problem with all hidden values is that the market eventually corrects and drives the price up where it should really be in a world of perfect understanding. It’s all about inefficiencies.

The “tweener,” which is probably a better word for it, is the OBP of the NFL. Teams already see the value and many would love to make the transition if there were more suitable nose tackles and other components out there. As teams adjust it will be interesting to see what the next great opportunity is for the innovators of the sport.